Innocent-Fixture-Disclaimer
0x472e2b8750d568e99f593bc05b9786e6f3ee0fd7
- Realised P&L
- $0.69
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $9.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.49at 0.060Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?
- +$1.33at 0.434Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 5?
- +$0.04at 0.083Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$-0.01at 1.003Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 21:44 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.13 |
| 10-09 21:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 21:37 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:10 | Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:07 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:04 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.062992126 | $5.00 |
| 10-07 17:50 | Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:49 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0309999995 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate? | BUY | 0.1139999977 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.0039800995 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:13 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 10:57 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.38 |
| 10-05 01:54 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0329999992 | $1.00 |