0x46e1ce66be9d738a8eb8aefa9005c892dfdf0b22
- Realised P&L
- $-75.51
- Volume
- $676.33
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $120.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.165 | $54.71 | −$44.77 |
| SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.714 | 0.905 | $33.92 | +$7.18 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.662 | 0.515 | $22.38 | −$6.39 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.715 | $6.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.885 | $3.58 | +$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.11at 0.908SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?
- +$-2.93at 0.310Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
- +$-18.75at 0.563Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
- +$-26.34at 0.712Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 05:24 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.6699998541 | $2.71 |
| 09-08 05:23 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.2999999894 | $2.84 |
| 09-08 05:22 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? | BUY | 0.5499999955 | $18.33 |
| 09-08 05:21 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.7 | $25.90 |
| 09-03 07:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999846 | $6.00 |
| 09-02 18:44 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.6999999933 | $20.77 |
| 09-02 06:08 | SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $28.11 |
| 08-14 15:17 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.5799999884 | $8.00 |
| 08-14 15:15 | SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $40.00 |
| 08-14 15:15 | SSI public model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999892 | $50.00 |
| 07-23 16:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $99.48 |