pollution
0x45746cf20077faef288188c9e0e31228f63fab3e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $191.2k
- Markets traded
- 811
- Open portfolio
- $8.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded811
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$437.37at 0.552Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?
- +$431.21at 0.569Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
- +$402.77at 0.759Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?
- +$400.00at 0.200Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
- +$394.54at 0.327Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 08:37 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-14 08:36 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $12.23 |
| 09-14 08:35 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $50.40 |
| 09-14 08:35 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $24.90 |
| 09-14 08:35 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $41.00 |
| 09-14 08:35 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $163.13 |
| 09-14 08:34 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $65.86 |
| 09-14 08:34 | Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $32.50 |
| 08-24 04:10 | Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $44.50 |
| 08-11 04:33 | Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 | SELL | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 07-25 15:14 | UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 07-22 09:46 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $81.49 |
| 07-22 08:38 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23? | BUY | 0.33 | $17.16 |
| 07-22 08:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 07-14 08:29 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.768 | $19.20 |