PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

pollution

0x45746cf20077faef288188c9e0e31228f63fab3e

Realised P&L
$-1.9k
Volume
$191.2k
Markets traded
811
Open portfolio
$8.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded811
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.6750.745$1.5k+$140.58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.7920.840$643.99+$36.48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.5300.775$639.31+$202.11
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? · No0.2940.855$537.17+$352.60
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8660.925$481.93+$30.66
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · No0.6700.945$346.13+$100.70
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7680.665$345.54$53.41
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.6420.860$344.00+$87.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.5170.825$313.50+$117.10
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.6460.895$304.30+$84.70
New pandemic before 2028? · No0.7770.830$295.00+$18.63
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? · No0.6010.345$276.03$205.22
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? · No0.3990.800$265.91+$133.26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No0.5670.875$262.50+$92.50
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8530.865$259.49+$3.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 08:37Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.79$3.95
09-14 08:36Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.77$12.23
09-14 08:35Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.84$50.40
09-14 08:35Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.83$24.90
09-14 08:35Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.82$41.00
09-14 08:35Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.81$163.13
09-14 08:34Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.66$65.86
09-14 08:34Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?BUY0.65$32.50
08-24 04:10Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?BUY0.89$44.50
08-11 04:33Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2SELL0.5$50.00
07-25 15:14UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)BUY0.64$64.00
07-22 09:46US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?SELL0.92$81.49
07-22 08:38Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?BUY0.33$17.16
07-22 08:33Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL0.94$188.00
07-14 08:29Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.768$19.20