PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

5038813185

0x453ae5e896ea243f332ed97c1c77bf2888ce81d2

Realised P&L
$44.6k
Volume
$2.95M
Markets traded
136
Open portfolio
$20.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded136
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.2040.205$8.9k+$28.65
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · Yes0.1540.145$6.4k$403.01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes0.0730.065$3.4k$432.40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.0800.032$1.4k$2.2k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8600.835$166.16$4.97
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.4500.545$54.50+$9.50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes0.0160.009$5.03$3.70
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No0.3000.001$4.72$2.8k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8000.935$1.29+$0.19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No0.3270.000$0.00$494.42
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 2? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$8.41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.1900.000$0.00$1.04
Eagles vs. Patriots · Eagles0.1430.000$0.00$367.17
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 · Over0.4700.000$0.00$470.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00$147.64

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 19:21Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.49$2.4k
09-16 19:20Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.49$1.8k
09-16 01:24Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.38$380.00
09-16 01:24Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.38$760.00
09-15 20:13Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.38$1.4k
09-15 20:12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?SELL0.091771708$1.4k
09-15 20:09Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?SELL0.11$5.60
09-15 20:07Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.37$647.50
09-15 19:59Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?SELL0.668$216.37
09-15 19:59Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?SELL0.669$249.54
09-15 19:59Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?SELL0.675$36.19
09-15 19:44Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.011$52.80
09-15 19:43Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.011$24.20
09-15 19:29Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?BUY0.14$119.71
09-15 19:28Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.011$126.50