PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

carnival

0x4355000e034a865c315f2b0fd1270511095e135c

Realised P&L
$47.79
Volume
$1.9k
Markets traded
179
Open portfolio
$289.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded179
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration76.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8630.955$33.18+$3.18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? · No0.8850.935$31.69+$1.69
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8320.971$29.16+$4.16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.7840.875$27.90+$2.90
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9230.970$23.11+$1.11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.9340.945$20.24+$0.24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.6870.795$16.21+$2.21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8220.825$16.05+$0.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No0.9401.000$10.63+$0.63
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No0.9640.974$10.10+$0.10
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? · No0.9200.915$9.95−$0.05
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? · No0.7500.735$9.80−$0.20
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? · No0.8300.810$9.76−$0.24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9310.975$9.41+$0.41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No0.9310.945$8.12+$0.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 15:41Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?BUY0.949999981$5.00
11-01 15:40Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.9819999996$5.00
11-01 15:39Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?BUY0.7099999517$5.00
11-01 15:36Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.9599999693$10.00
11-01 15:34US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?BUY0.75$10.00
11-01 15:33US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?BUY0.9639999985$10.00
11-01 15:31Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.9709999928$8.00
11-01 15:30US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?BUY0.9199999338$10.00
11-01 15:28Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.8399999933$10.00
11-01 15:28Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.8299999842$10.00
11-01 15:26Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?BUY0.9399999887$10.00
11-01 15:25Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?BUY0.9399999981$10.00
11-01 15:25Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8699999904$10.00
11-01 15:20Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November?BUY0.9399999962$5.00
11-01 15:17Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?BUY0.8299999967$10.00