carnival
0x4355000e034a865c315f2b0fd1270511095e135c
- Realised P&L
- $47.79
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 179
- Open portfolio
- $289.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded179
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.75at 0.556Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$8.81at 0.850Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?
- +$6.14at 0.782Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
- +$4.64at 0.301Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?
- +$3.43at 0.700US government shutdown by October 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 15:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.949999981 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 15:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9819999996 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 15:39 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7099999517 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 15:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9599999693 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:34 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:33 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.9639999985 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:31 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9709999928 | $8.00 |
| 11-01 15:30 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999338 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:28 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:28 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999842 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:26 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999887 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999904 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 15:20 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in November? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 15:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |