Fortuna777
0x414585f5ffaf974fdb3c6143b09fdc44b5fffc24
- Realised P&L
- $9.1k
- Volume
- $177.1k
- Markets traded
- 277
- Open portfolio
- $693.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded277
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.7kat 0.156Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep
- +$1.4kat 0.546Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$775.50at 0.599GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?
- +$665.22at 0.591Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
- +$422.77at 0.563GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-05 02:18 | Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2399999967 | $50.00 |
| 11-05 02:04 | Will Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? | BUY | 0.0390000004 | $5.00 |
| 11-05 02:04 | Will Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? | BUY | 0.0363984674 | $5.00 |
| 11-05 01:50 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | BUY | 0.5899999864 | $16.00 |
| 11-05 01:32 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.00 |
| 11-05 01:31 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%? | SELL | 0.0031 | $0.31 |
| 11-05 01:31 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%? | BUY | 0.129325203 | $15.00 |
| 11-05 00:40 | Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 11-05 00:18 | Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 11-04 14:59 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 11-04 14:45 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%? | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 11-04 14:45 | Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | BUY | 0.8199999995 | $30.00 |
| 11-04 01:03 | NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 11-04 01:01 | Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | BUY | 0.5408604384 | $55.00 |
| 11-04 01:00 | California redistricting referendum passes? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.00 |