envy666
0x4018df6f97bcd082cf2fa2d80e1da56812eb01f6
- Realised P&L
- $3.13
- Volume
- $19.6k
- Markets traded
- 332
- Open portfolio
- $71.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded332
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.705 | 0.805 | $57.54 | +$7.14 |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.059 | $7.68 | −$4.32 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.153 | $1.58 | −$0.42 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.549 | $1.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.512 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.209 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.079 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.001 | $0.22 | −$3.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$103.23at 0.019Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
- +$87.64at 0.016Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?
- +$77.61at 0.026Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 210m?
- +$56.82at 0.035Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 210m and 220m?
- +$48.17at 0.204Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 06:52 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7699999918 | $32.00 |
| 09-18 01:42 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.41 |
| 09-15 02:27 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30? | BUY | 0.0079720252 | $2.63 |
| 09-08 01:47 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30? | BUY | 0.0119999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 01:47 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30? | BUY | 0.019 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 02:15 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.0142852608 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 02:37 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 08-31 02:37 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31? | SELL | 0.0022198 | $0.44 |
| 08-27 03:12 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 03:06 | Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.0829999292 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 01:55 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 960m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0024102774 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 01:55 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 920m and 940m by August 31? | BUY | 0.011999988 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 01:55 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 02:02 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.80 |
| 08-17 03:54 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 510m and 530m by August 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |