PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xrc

0x40047c2a7f97b6849ec2a665425c171dc4b6c40b

Realised P&L
$42.2k
Volume
$1.94M
Markets traded
369
Open portfolio
$438.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded369
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9420.958$143.1k+$2.3k
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.8650.935$104.9k+$7.8k
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · Yes0.8860.977$73.2k+$6.8k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.8960.954$53.1k+$3.2k
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No0.9300.997$20.0k+$1.3k
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No0.8240.885$15.5k+$1.1k
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.8530.945$4.7k+$462.08
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes0.9670.998$4.0k+$122.49
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · No0.8700.920$2.1k+$116.41
US x China Military clash before 2027? · No0.9200.974$1.8k+$101.27
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? · No0.9100.953$1.5k+$68.69
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7740.795$1.5k+$39.61
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? · No0.7600.680$1.2k$144.51
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? · No0.9380.948$1.1k+$10.89
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No0.9010.963$991.37+$63.48

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 01:01Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by September 30?BUY0.93$51.15
09-16 22:05Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?BUY0.98$18.76
09-16 22:05Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?BUY0.99$87.32
09-16 02:42Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.958$95.80
09-14 10:27Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.9328779509$388.06
09-14 10:27Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.9470658487$921.63
09-11 02:54Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.661638903$90.96
09-10 11:41Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?SELL0.974$97.40
09-10 11:36Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.9494651163$204.14
09-10 11:24Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?BUY0.9869057615$110.48
09-10 07:03China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?BUY0.9367324583$5.0k
09-10 04:29China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?BUY0.934$387.95
09-09 10:19Will Aster dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$60.12
09-09 10:19Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9199995122$377.18
09-09 10:18Will Aster reach $1.80 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9014908287$138.60