0xrc
0x40047c2a7f97b6849ec2a665425c171dc4b6c40b
- Realised P&L
- $42.2k
- Volume
- $1.94M
- Markets traded
- 369
- Open portfolio
- $438.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded369
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.947NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers
- +$1.7kat 0.959Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.3kat 0.967Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
- +$1.2kat 0.957Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
- +$1.1kat 0.931Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:01 | Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $51.15 |
| 09-16 22:05 | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY | 0.98 | $18.76 |
| 09-16 22:05 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit? | BUY | 0.99 | $87.32 |
| 09-16 02:42 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $95.80 |
| 09-14 10:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9328779509 | $388.06 |
| 09-14 10:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.9470658487 | $921.63 |
| 09-11 02:54 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.661638903 | $90.96 |
| 09-10 11:41 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | SELL | 0.974 | $97.40 |
| 09-10 11:36 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9494651163 | $204.14 |
| 09-10 11:24 | Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | BUY | 0.9869057615 | $110.48 |
| 09-10 07:03 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.9367324583 | $5.0k |
| 09-10 04:29 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.934 | $387.95 |
| 09-09 10:19 | Will Aster dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $60.12 |
| 09-09 10:19 | Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199995122 | $377.18 |
| 09-09 10:18 | Will Aster reach $1.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9014908287 | $138.60 |