0x3f36e0823837286e470865d61a5ac05dd4d77a58
0x3f36e0823837286e470865d61a5ac05dd4d77a58
- Realised P&L
- $5.97
- Volume
- $158.34
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $8.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · No | 0.840 | 0.595 | $4.25 | −$1.75 |
| No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15? · Yes | 0.534 | 0.405 | $2.75 | −$0.88 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · Yes | 0.510 | 0.220 | $1.29 | −$1.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.72at 0.453Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
- +$2.98at 0.351Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
- +$2.12at 0.472Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
- +$0.77at 0.798Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on September 25?
- +$0.38at 0.941Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 02:39 | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 09-27 02:39 | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 09-27 01:13 | Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.5099999949 | $3.00 |
| 09-26 12:35 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.82 |
| 09-26 12:34 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.117 | $0.03 |
| 09-26 12:34 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.122 | $0.03 |
| 09-26 12:34 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.122 | $0.26 |
| 09-26 12:33 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.189 | $0.31 |
| 09-26 12:33 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.211 | $0.04 |
| 09-26 12:13 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.76 | $0.14 |
| 09-26 12:12 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.2043189345 | $3.00 |
| 09-26 12:12 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.76 | $0.16 |
| 09-26 12:11 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.76 | $0.29 |
| 09-26 12:11 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.76 | $0.14 |
| 09-26 12:09 | Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | SELL | 0.75 | $0.37 |