guanda1990
0x38fdf3f7be9580b6610441245974953d7d8bc6bb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $320.8k
- Markets traded
- 453
- Open portfolio
- $4.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded453
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$483.82at 0.510Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
- +$301.71at 0.110Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$297.95at 0.426Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
- +$200.98at 0.485Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
- +$172.36at 0.425Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:30 | Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-17 16:28 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.896 | $89.60 |
| 09-17 16:28 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $47.88 |
| 09-17 16:27 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 09-07 08:00 | Will edgeX reach $1.40 before 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.19 |
| 09-07 07:59 | Will edgeX reach $1.60 before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.25 |
| 09-06 16:49 | Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-06 16:42 | Will edgeX reach $1.40 before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $5.70 |
| 09-06 16:41 | Will edgeX reach $1.40 before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $22.15 |
| 09-03 07:00 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 09-03 06:59 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 09-03 06:57 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 09-03 06:56 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 08-14 16:59 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 08-14 16:56 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.834 | $94.24 |