MisTKy
0x35bbbad2415fe5e39b12da9a316cdc80b022009b
- Realised P&L
- $336.9k
- Volume
- $83.98M
- Markets traded
- 1,030
- Open portfolio
- $190.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,030
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.9kat 0.166Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$35.6kat 0.224Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$26.2kat 0.820Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$25.2kat 0.873Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$20.0kat 0.162Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:17 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $571.53 |
| 11-01 20:16 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $8.3k |
| 11-01 20:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4092467294 | $142.65 |
| 11-01 19:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.959 | $9.6k |
| 11-01 19:20 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $2.6k |
| 11-01 19:20 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.8k |
| 11-01 19:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 18:43 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.74 | $952.37 |
| 11-01 18:43 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.73 | $328.50 |
| 11-01 18:31 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5200069951 | $1.5k |
| 11-01 18:28 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.513600587 | $1.0k |
| 11-01 18:19 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $5.0k |
| 11-01 18:18 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.54 | $885.51 |
| 11-01 18:12 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $920.53 |
| 11-01 18:00 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $5.0k |