mutong
0x358805187437c0a300fa610c9053b5b77f33302f
- Realised P&L
- $-881.44
- Volume
- $67.7k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.221 | $551.25 | +$32.63 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.160 | $319.00 | −$31.92 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.077 | $232.50 | −$195.50 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.320 | 0.305 | $91.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.405 | $14.46 | −$5.54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.065 | $5.20 | −$14.80 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.002 | $1.80 | −$5.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$247.78at 0.388Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$235.25at 0.181Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$183.12at 0.200Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$117.38at 0.410Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?
- +$82.10at 0.167Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 13:33 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.198 | $198.00 |
| 07-19 21:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 07-19 20:47 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.392 | $39.20 |
| 07-19 20:42 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.3960186707 | $111.78 |
| 07-17 12:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $10.47 |
| 07-17 12:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.411 | $205.50 |
| 07-17 12:48 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.411 | $205.50 |
| 07-14 21:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.433 | $216.50 |
| 07-14 20:50 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.26 | $20.80 |
| 07-07 18:11 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.064 | $64.00 |
| 07-07 16:32 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 07-07 05:05 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 07-01 16:21 | Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.2199999936 | $20.00 |
| 07-01 16:17 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.077 | $77.00 |
| 06-17 13:49 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.103 | $24.00 |