DarrylMoon3376
0x3506ae0733cbc61fe802665725dce7699eda4815
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $194.8k
- Markets traded
- 294
- Open portfolio
- $214.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded294
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.275 | $95.97 | −$26.18 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.445 | $72.98 | −$22.14 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? · O 84.5 | 0.140 | 0.066 | $40.41 | −$45.97 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? · No | 0.460 | 0.435 | $2.61 | −$0.15 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.903 | 0.050 | $2.18 | −$37.55 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · No | 0.760 | 0.265 | $0.53 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$370.16at 0.650Will Ethena dip to $0.08 by December 31, 2026?
- +$152.88at 0.160Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 29 be between 2,300,000 and 2,400,000?
- +$150.31at 0.650Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027?
- +$132.80at 0.840Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$127.60at 0.410Will Trump say "Easter" in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 05:01 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $5.60 |
| 06-16 04:55 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 04-11 17:51 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.75 |
| 04-11 17:50 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $654.87 |
| 04-11 15:16 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $662.76 |
| 04-11 08:59 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.176 | $55.26 |
| 04-11 08:53 | Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | SELL | 0.981 | $444.39 |
| 04-10 23:31 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.98 |
| 04-10 22:45 | Spread: Ceará SC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.48 | $61.44 |
| 04-10 16:05 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.549 | $172.39 |
| 04-10 14:25 | Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | BUY | 0.89 | $403.17 |
| 04-09 10:04 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $883.85 |
| 03-29 16:15 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.0k |
| 03-25 19:05 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? | SELL | 0.823 | $225.50 |
| 03-25 17:16 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | SELL | 0.2 | $48.80 |