0x34a42279AD
0x34a42279adc31650b5f80e80445ab37cf5754cc7
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $1.27M
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · No | 0.835 | 0.885 | $1.3k | +$72.16 |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.561 | 0.780 | $222.05 | +$62.23 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.073 | $7.32 | +$3.26 |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.040 | $5.83 | +$2.16 |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.215 | $4.30 | −$7.30 |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.007 | $1.91 | −$2.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$579.27at 0.041Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$456.87at 0.670Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31?
- +$397.39at 0.608100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31?
- +$371.38at 0.147Will FDP be part of the next German government?
- +$227.52at 0.015Will Michelle Obama be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 02:31 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $44.75 |
| 06-25 22:37 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $29.83 |
| 06-06 09:10 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 06-06 09:08 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $7.50 |
| 06-06 09:06 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.248462 | $12.42 |
| 05-29 22:03 | Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $26.40 |
| 05-29 22:03 | Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.6649605241 | $39.59 |
| 05-29 22:00 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 05-27 06:25 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | BUY | 0.2227666667 | $13.37 |
| 05-27 06:24 | Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | BUY | 0.5978225 | $119.56 |
| 05-26 21:05 | Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? | BUY | 0.9645364 | $192.91 |
| 05-26 20:47 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 05-23 14:56 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $17.60 |
| 05-14 23:11 | New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $14.40 |
| 05-14 23:10 | New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $74.70 |