PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x3413d1f56798c9c3f00829dcc921171d237ad913

Realised P&L
$-126.53
Volume
$15.7k
Markets traded
118
Open portfolio
$63.68

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded118
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes0.2470.230$24.86$1.82
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.2800.965$17.12+$12.15
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.1920.675$8.71+$6.23
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes0.1810.070$5.28$8.41
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0500.018$3.45$5.88
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8250.835$2.02+$0.02
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.1300.125$1.91$0.08
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.0500.016$0.32$0.68
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00$9.66
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1870.000$0.00$51.70
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$1.93
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET · Up0.5100.000$0.00$2.56
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0640.000$0.00$19.35
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET · Up0.5100.000$0.00$2.56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? · Yes0.0450.000$0.00$3.83

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-08 22:20Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ETBUY0.51$2.56
08-08 22:18Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ETBUY0.54$2.71
08-07 16:48Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ETBUY0.51$2.56
08-07 16:25Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ETBUY0.51$2.56
08-07 16:24Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETBUY0.51$2.56
08-07 16:22Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.008$7.11
08-07 14:07Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-07 13:24Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-07 13:17Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-07 12:49Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-07 03:50Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-07 00:16Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.8199999836$1.00
08-06 22:44Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-06 22:09Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.008999991$1.00
08-06 22:01Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.8299992198$1.00