lowrisk24
0x3238761f20d804b6ae5776e94cdefd79ca313291
- Realised P&L
- $-109.1k
- Volume
- $7.23M
- Markets traded
- 1,072
- Open portfolio
- $13.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,072
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · No | 0.856 | 0.915 | $4.1k | +$267.72 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.945 | $3.8k | +$220.00 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: October · Nothing | 0.959 | 1.000 | $2.2k | +$89.64 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.964 | $1.1k | +$134.98 |
| Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.865 | $958.56 | +$16.62 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.825 | $825.00 | +$35.00 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.847 | 0.972 | $728.98 | +$93.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21? · Down | 0.962 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.810Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?
- +$4.9kat 0.883Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$3.7kat 0.818Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?
- +$3.5kat 0.879Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?
- +$3.1kat 0.843Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 21:20 | Nothing Ever Happens: October | BUY | 0.9657955449 | $1.2k |
| 10-19 21:19 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $1.2k |
| 10-13 21:31 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $169.01 |
| 10-10 11:19 | Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | BUY | 0.85 | $941.94 |
| 09-04 19:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | BUY | 0.81 | $620.27 |
| 09-01 08:52 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $494.36 |
| 08-26 22:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August? | BUY | 0.91 | $283.01 |
| 08-26 22:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $150.26 |
| 08-24 20:38 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.2k |
| 08-24 18:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.4k |
| 08-24 17:43 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24? | BUY | 0.9 | $28.26 |
| 08-23 20:50 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23? | BUY | 0.9699752941 | $1.6k |
| 08-23 20:48 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.978 | $1.4k |
| 08-06 23:06 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.94 | $3.8k |
| 08-06 23:04 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7978765 | $3.8k |