i.love.Frieren
0x314c9c0c6f60c3563cc29ef3f969d36e6d0b69dd
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $150.1k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.725 | 0.875 | $2.7k | +$454.24 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.597 | 0.740 | $1.9k | +$359.35 |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.495 | 0.745 | $150.58 | +$50.58 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.515 | $143.06 | +$43.06 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes | 0.448 | 0.520 | $116.08 | +$16.08 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes | 0.710 | 0.815 | $114.79 | +$14.79 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.555 | $99.11 | −$0.89 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.145 | $56.99 | −$139.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.257Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
- +$920.89at 0.684US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$725.95at 0.626Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
- +$627.65at 0.617Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
- +$622.95at 0.787Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 12:48 | Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.105 | $6.83 |
| 10-13 12:47 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:46 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $8.15 |
| 10-13 12:46 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4682011804 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:46 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $6.00 |
| 10-13 12:46 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 10-13 12:45 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $40.00 |
| 10-13 12:42 | Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.16 | $152.38 |
| 10-13 12:12 | Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | SELL | 0.2759443045 | $42.71 |
| 10-13 12:10 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.0562392934 | $24.45 |
| 10-13 12:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.12 | $19.67 |
| 10-13 11:58 | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.129 | $6.91 |
| 10-13 11:57 | Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? | SELL | 0.0119865215 | $2.27 |
| 08-26 21:25 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7149515129 | $1.0k |
| 08-13 12:48 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.210004515 | $520.94 |