PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

this15cleverboy

0x30ddc624503628845ece743b280b291feb61bb80

Realised P&L
$244.21
Volume
$49.9k
Markets traded
46
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded46
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample39 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)89.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9810.987$493.24+$2.75
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.8300.725$362.50−$52.50
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9830.992$198.30+$1.70
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No0.9650.979$195.84+$2.80
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9850.989$192.76+$0.68
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9690.985$104.10+$1.64
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? · Yes0.6000.585$38.02−$0.97
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · No0.9670.978$36.36+$0.39
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · Yes0.9400.024$6.59−$251.65

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-08 03:19Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9739999979$190.00
09-28 00:46Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.985$192.07
09-02 08:53Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?BUY0.975$97.50
09-01 01:42Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.989$1.8k
08-22 09:08Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?BUY0.987$197.40
08-21 04:44Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.973$28.23
07-02 03:55Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.986$2.0k
07-02 03:54Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.982$3.1k
07-02 03:53Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?BUY0.967$35.97
07-02 03:53Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.931$93.10
07-02 03:51Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?BUY0.9645192365$193.04
06-20 17:05Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?BUY0.998$499.00
06-16 02:20Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?BUY0.94$470.00
06-16 02:19Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?BUY0.998$5.0k
06-16 02:19Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY0.93$186.00