this15cleverboy
0x30ddc624503628845ece743b280b291feb61bb80
- Realised P&L
- $244.21
- Volume
- $49.9k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.981 | 0.987 | $493.24 | +$2.75 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.725 | $362.50 | −$52.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.992 | $198.30 | +$1.70 |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No | 0.965 | 0.979 | $195.84 | +$2.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.985 | 0.989 | $192.76 | +$0.68 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.969 | 0.985 | $104.10 | +$1.64 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.585 | $38.02 | −$0.97 |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · No | 0.967 | 0.978 | $36.36 | +$0.39 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.024 | $6.46 | −$251.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.77at 0.990Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$31.92at 0.940Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$16.51at 0.969Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025?
- +$16.31at 0.957Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$14.56at 0.980Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 03:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739999979 | $190.00 |
| 09-28 00:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $192.07 |
| 09-02 08:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.975 | $97.50 |
| 09-01 01:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $1.8k |
| 08-22 09:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.987 | $197.40 |
| 08-21 04:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $28.23 |
| 07-02 03:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $2.0k |
| 07-02 03:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $3.1k |
| 07-02 03:53 | Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $35.97 |
| 07-02 03:53 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $93.10 |
| 07-02 03:51 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | BUY | 0.9645192365 | $193.04 |
| 06-20 17:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | BUY | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 06-16 02:20 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $470.00 |
| 06-16 02:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.0k |
| 06-16 02:19 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $186.00 |