PassiveStrike
0x30a7df6c0b74e59f90bb0be1831f260c540602fa
- Realised P&L
- $248.60
- Volume
- $1.59M
- Markets traded
- 370
- Open portfolio
- $6.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded370
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No | 0.914 | 0.959 | $2.0k | +$93.55 |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.973 | $1.9k | +$221.21 |
| Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? · No | 0.902 | 0.968 | $1.3k | +$85.29 |
| Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? · No | 0.848 | 0.953 | $768.23 | +$84.43 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.923 | 0.977 | $100.04 | +$5.48 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.095 | $58.70 | −$185.49 |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.025 | $14.63 | −$3.15 |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.593Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$1.6kat 0.710Iran strike on US military by February 28?
- +$1.1kat 0.322Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$1.1kat 0.763US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.008US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 23:46 | New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | SELL | 0.8462182032 | $115.10 |
| 10-26 23:44 | AI data center in space by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $272.01 |
| 10-26 23:43 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.9652870806 | $1.4k |
| 10-26 23:41 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.9736653956 | $1.5k |
| 10-20 03:15 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%? | BUY | 0.0077859485 | $4.13 |
| 08-14 22:07 | Megaquake by August 31? | BUY | 0.0784789292 | $61.83 |
| 08-03 21:32 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.7780690774 | $67.13 |
| 08-03 14:24 | Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? | BUY | 0.9209399451 | $915.50 |
| 08-01 20:00 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | BUY | 0.09 | $38.14 |
| 08-01 19:59 | Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | BUY | 0.013 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 02:59 | Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26? | BUY | 0.9314940683 | $417.72 |
| 07-24 23:39 | Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | BUY | 0.012 | $7.91 |
| 07-13 14:33 | Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12? | BUY | 0.959 | $7.78 |
| 07-13 02:50 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $46.99 |
| 07-13 02:18 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0256910934 | $31.78 |