PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

btcabal

0x2f4ef485d193aaaa6486267e9721f5efcdd53d8d

Realised P&L
$720.75
Volume
$46.4k
Markets traded
91
Open portfolio
$8.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded91
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Trump out as President by August 31? · No0.9900.992$2.0k+$3.00
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? · No0.9870.989$989.00+$2.00
Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9880.999$948.64+$10.15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.9690.990$791.60+$16.10
Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.9901.000$663.99+$6.12
Anthropic acquired before 2027? · No0.9700.963$364.79$2.84
Squid FDV above $400M one day after launch · No0.9520.998$300.25+$13.64
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? · No0.9700.974$298.50+$1.23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · No0.9550.979$293.70+$7.20
Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.9780.998$252.83+$5.05
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by August 31? · No0.9300.945$189.00+$3.00
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by August 31? · No0.9640.966$188.37+$0.44
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31? · No0.9500.980$156.80+$4.80
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $70B by August 31? · No0.9890.969$146.23$3.03
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by August 31? · No0.9870.960$144.10$4.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 16:21Squid FDV above $200M one day after launchBUY0.93$2.33
08-03 16:21Squid FDV above $300M one day after launchBUY0.96$28.79
08-03 16:14Squid FDV above $400M one day after launchBUY0.985$9.85
08-03 08:04Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9902910043$657.87
08-03 08:04Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9883119241$938.49
08-03 08:04Will Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?BUY0.99$59.85
08-03 08:03Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9775749231$247.78
08-03 08:03Will Squid launch a token by August 31, 2026?BUY0.97$97.00
08-02 13:09Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?BUY0.97$297.28
08-02 07:41Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by August 31?BUY0.99$31.68
08-02 07:35Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by August 31?BUY0.9637435897$187.93
08-02 07:34Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by August 31?BUY0.93$186.00
08-02 07:33Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by August 31?BUY0.9879302358$141.61
08-02 07:32Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by August 31?BUY0.989$139.36
08-02 07:31Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $70B by August 31?BUY0.9890662647$149.26