0x2F14faCA6255534c50Cd2fc2c406f21B8fF74841-1764805650809
0x2f14faca6255534c50cd2fc2c406f21b8ff74841
- Realised P&L
- $-387.65
- Volume
- $18.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $222.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.065 | $182.15 | −$271.85 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.977 | $21.24 | +$1.24 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.011 | $5.96 | −$1.04 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.033 | $3.78 | −$1.22 |
| New COVID variant of concern before 2027? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.120 | $3.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.040 | $2.19 | −$2.81 |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.028 | $2.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.920 | $1.71 | −$0.09 |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.90 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.250Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$15.48at 0.390Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$-2.00at 0.140Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?
- +$-2.00at 0.350Will Leavitt say "Heinous" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$-2.00at 0.054Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 20:12 | Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.00 |
| 06-20 20:46 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.0540000015 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 19:11 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 19:10 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.1399999426 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 19:10 | Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.038999988 | $3.00 |
| 06-15 19:09 | Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0429999921 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 19:09 | Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0129999974 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 19:55 | Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0149999925 | $2.00 |
| 05-29 18:56 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999687 | $20.00 |
| 05-29 18:54 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199999981 | $50.00 |
| 05-29 18:53 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.012 | $15.00 |
| 05-03 21:19 | Trump out as President by May 31? | BUY | 0.0136637533 | $30.00 |
| 04-26 13:15 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $9.43 |
| 04-26 13:15 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 04-25 23:03 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $15.00 |