0x2eba0bd81e35707040c4dc84071b3bb90d32ffa3
0x2eba0bd81e35707040c4dc84071b3bb90d32ffa3
- Realised P&L
- $453.97
- Volume
- $458.9k
- Markets traded
- 344
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded344
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.067US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.354US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.739Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$1.0kat 0.826Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
- +$851.08at 0.613Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 07:34 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0170625 | $13.65 |
| 10-06 07:20 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 09-04 07:42 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $155.90 |
| 09-03 12:03 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.865 | $748.32 |
| 09-02 12:24 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $490.20 |
| 09-01 07:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.42 | $252.00 |
| 09-01 07:43 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $112.00 |
| 09-01 06:59 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $86.00 |
| 08-27 08:27 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.212 | $31.80 |
| 08-24 07:26 | Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.44 | $107.80 |
| 08-24 07:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.006 | $4.80 |
| 08-19 07:12 | Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.38 | $65.15 |
| 08-18 06:48 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.379 | $37.90 |
| 08-17 13:51 | Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.39 | $152.70 |
| 08-17 12:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |