PolyBot

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Traders

Redpacket

0x2ba03ca09de9f778890a6d0d8e3bc5167d476bc1

Realised P&L
$-39.3k
Volume
$2.95M
Markets traded
181
Open portfolio
$54.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded181
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? · $3,0000.4840.640$12.7k+$3.1k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.8990.983$9.8k+$835.00
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9160.980$9.8k+$635.00
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9150.973$9.7k+$568.33
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8300.966$9.7k+$1.4k
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.967$483.25+$33.25
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7610.815$429.64+$28.63
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0120.002$405.26−$2.8k
China coup attempt before 2027? · No0.9470.982$294.45+$10.25
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · No0.3950.982$196.30+$117.30
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.9420.966$193.19+$4.80
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0130.001$115.83−$3.0k
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.983$98.24+$5.25
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No0.9790.970$97.00−$0.90
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7300.955$95.50+$22.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 04:26China coup attempt before 2027?BUY0.947$4.25
07-24 03:52Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?BUY0.83$8.30
07-01 08:41Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?BUY0.959$9.59
06-29 16:35Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?BUY0.43$2.15
05-28 00:55Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?BUY0.87$4.35
05-27 00:54Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30?BUY0.82$4.10
05-20 16:07Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?BUY0.95$81.89
05-20 16:06Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?BUY0.95$95.00
05-20 16:04Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24?BUY0.988$98.80
05-20 04:53Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?BUY0.964$289.20
05-18 01:23Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?BUY0.939$375.60
05-17 07:04Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?BUY0.981$196.20
05-16 11:18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?BUY0.94$94.00
05-13 16:28Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?BUY0.887$3.45
05-13 04:25APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.87$0.69