0x2A9306F27C14279416D4279BF5C3BfD5EAedb7AC-1768661132973
0x2a9306f27c14279416d4279bf5c3bfd5eaedb7ac
- Realised P&L
- $67.69
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $371.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.18at 0.476Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$16.11at 0.869Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
- +$10.90at 0.594Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$8.14at 0.860Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
- +$4.12at 0.840Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:37 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $9.88 |
| 09-16 19:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.78 |
| 09-16 19:36 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $9.88 |
| 09-16 19:34 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $9.89 |
| 08-31 15:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999774 | $10.00 |
| 08-31 15:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999584 | $15.00 |
| 08-31 14:59 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $13.33 |
| 08-31 14:59 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.6941966427 | $11.58 |
| 08-25 21:09 | Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 21:08 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $2.40 |
| 08-24 10:38 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999774 | $10.00 |
| 08-24 10:35 | Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? | SELL | 0.94 | $10.24 |
| 08-12 07:44 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999937 | $9.64 |
| 08-12 07:43 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.712 | $9.62 |
| 07-30 14:48 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6957915774 | $24.80 |