0x295cab9ec9421bc8a72dc3a4b798a18c9a1e4648
0x295cab9ec9421bc8a72dc3a4b798a18c9a1e4648
- Realised P&L
- $-5.04
- Volume
- $50.95
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $6.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.355 | $1.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.295 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.735 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? · No | 0.800 | 0.655 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.129 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.17at 0.460Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27?
- +$0.52at 0.659Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?
- +$0.44at 0.698Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$0.39at 0.720Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$0.32at 0.757Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 02:47 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 16:06 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:35 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 06:22 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:13 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:13 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 17:26 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 09:25 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 01:16 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 13:15 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 13:11 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 05:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:07 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |