0x28E42Ce9f513158f37dC90650baC898b1386e179-1763939632009
0x28e42ce9f513158f37dc90650bac898b1386e179
- Realised P&L
- $637.97
- Volume
- $25.3k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $669.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$269.94at 0.217MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$193.97at 0.512Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$153.22at 0.080MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$61.23at 0.013Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
- +$49.03at 0.420Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 12:03 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999971 | $38.00 |
| 10-26 10:02 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 10-26 08:59 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6499999994 | $200.00 |
| 10-26 08:54 | Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? | BUY | 0.0858043659 | $50.00 |
| 10-26 08:50 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.3569999989 | $35.00 |
| 10-26 08:50 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.3800181877 | $9.00 |
| 09-13 14:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5025728627 | $200.00 |
| 09-13 14:08 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $243.59 |
| 09-02 19:06 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.5765894787 | $84.29 |
| 09-01 19:06 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 19:44 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999956 | $25.00 |
| 08-14 16:09 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.3167776222 | $50.70 |
| 08-13 07:24 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.1268797795 | $64.00 |
| 08-13 07:19 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.00 |
| 08-13 07:19 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.02 | $3.00 |