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0x26e6626944d44dee9de608ce8ab12d91dcd6edfb
- Realised P&L
- $-16.37
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $149.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.93at 0.500Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
- +$6.23at 0.500Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$6.20at 0.500StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?
- +$5.96at 0.500Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?
- +$5.96at 0.500Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 10.00% or more?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-18 07:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 03-03 08:23 | Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | BUY | 0.76 | $38.76 |
| 03-03 05:36 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.784 | $4.70 |
| 03-03 05:35 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.52 |
| 03-03 02:41 | Will France strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.842 | $6.24 |
| 03-03 02:37 | Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars? | BUY | 0.983 | $7.36 |
| 03-03 02:34 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.936 | $7.49 |
| 03-03 02:33 | Will Timothée Chalamet attend the Oscars? | BUY | 0.994 | $7.95 |
| 03-03 01:44 | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BUY | 0.969 | $8.24 |
| 03-03 01:43 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.932 | $7.92 |
| 03-03 01:41 | Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $7.31 |
| 03-03 01:39 | Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $6.80 |
| 03-03 01:35 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.44 |
| 03-03 01:22 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.928 | $7.89 |
| 03-03 01:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | BUY | 0.95 | $8.07 |