PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

ASportGuy

0x22cfc6454469112b559c284c28e7e77b2718a9de

Realised P&L
$-1.6k
Volume
$33.1k
Markets traded
255
Open portfolio
$785.28

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded255
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.6590.715$160.87+$12.47
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? · Yes0.1670.190$77.89+$9.30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No0.8400.825$71.78−$1.30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0260.028$68.75+$3.25
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6300.625$68.73−$0.55
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? · Yes0.3630.355$58.93−$1.39
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.7850.775$46.50−$0.60
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision? · Yes0.1820.245$41.79+$10.67
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.6350.615$35.67−$1.18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes0.0130.011$28.75−$3.24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.8470.865$25.95+$0.55
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.6300.645$25.80+$0.60
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No0.6500.675$20.25+$0.75
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes0.6430.675$20.25+$0.95
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.9100.905$18.10−$0.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-19 00:58Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.79$216.26
10-19 00:57Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.787$3.94
10-19 00:57Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.8$120.00
10-18 20:32Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5BUY0.74$14.80
10-18 16:29Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-18?BUY0.08$8.00
10-18 00:17Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.82$41.00
10-17 16:39Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17?BUY0.69$13.80
10-17 06:22Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?BUY0.84$46.20
10-16 16:41Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.63$12.60
10-16 16:39Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.63$22.05
10-16 09:15Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.17$17.00
10-16 09:10Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.17$17.00
10-16 08:21Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.17$17.00
10-16 08:15Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?BUY0.37$7.40
10-16 08:11Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.63$18.89