0x21fec2a3079c16cce39fd52333fd30c6deded697
0x21fec2a3079c16cce39fd52333fd30c6deded697
- Realised P&L
- $-6.81
- Volume
- $197.46
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $7.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.615 | $2.56 | +$1.56 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.475 | $1.53 | +$0.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.835 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.233 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.675 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.278Trump renames AI by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:43 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 01:34 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:34 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:44 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 20:07 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 00:03 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September? | BUY | 0.2579999995 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 16:00 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:15 | Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:44 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 18:28 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 09:21 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 10:56 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |