rjpoly
0x21fe77f7c7861c5f0a70a26ae86dfbaf1c5eda90
- Realised P&L
- $18.7k
- Volume
- $1.31M
- Markets traded
- 772
- Open portfolio
- $9.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded772
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.624Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
- +$1.2kat 0.999Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$1.2kat 0.802No Ethereum all time high in 2024?
- +$1.1kat 0.430Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.781Will XRP reach $2.70 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 06:05 | Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9608217718 | $1.2k |
| 09-08 01:46 | Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9162608696 | $21.07 |
| 09-07 23:23 | Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $280.19 |
| 08-20 02:32 | Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $0.10 |
| 08-20 02:32 | Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $71.43 |
| 08-20 02:28 | Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028? | BUY | 0.57 | $36.47 |
| 08-19 07:28 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.003 | $90.00 |
| 08-12 17:01 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.923 | $55.38 |
| 08-11 03:36 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $16.00 |
| 08-10 08:38 | XRP Up or Down - August 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | BUY | 0.094 | $0.94 |
| 08-08 21:50 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $37.59 |
| 07-13 03:31 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $186.00 |
| 07-12 23:17 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 07-12 23:10 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $95.80 |
| 07-12 02:58 | Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | BUY | 0.845 | $84.50 |