0x21D945F29C63042867b66Db60713758a7eBDC423-1782055881766
0x21d945f29c63042867b66db60713758a7ebdc423
- Realised P&L
- $-26.31
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $19.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.63at 0.175Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?
- +$5.61at 0.730Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$4.59at 0.1790 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$3.43at 0.467Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?
- +$3.19at 0.617Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 15:05 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.1122123644 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 17:05 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0309999705 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 10:47 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 17:42 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 17:41 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.017619593 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 14:49 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 14:46 | Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.0732673058 | $3.00 |
| 07-25 14:36 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | BUY | 0.0931758041 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 14:31 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 14:26 | Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? | BUY | 0.0939999225 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 14:25 | Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 14:25 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0429999606 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 13:50 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.0539999504 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 13:49 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 13:45 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |