daok
0x20c600b89184efb5d8ca688b36060183d275a830
- Realised P&L
- $-188.55
- Volume
- $38.2k
- Markets traded
- 426
- Open portfolio
- $249.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded426
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.21at 0.433Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$59.39at 0.914Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
- +$46.50at 0.370Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?
- +$33.80at 0.633Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 17?
- +$29.36at 0.517Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 20:04 | Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.267824 | $2.68 |
| 10-19 19:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.959 | $19.18 |
| 10-19 19:58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 10-19 19:57 | Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 10-19 19:53 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.95 |
| 10-19 19:52 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $11.55 |
| 10-19 19:52 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $3.45 |
| 10-19 19:51 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.60 |
| 10-19 19:48 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.869 | $13.04 |
| 10-10 16:57 | Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $29.5B by October 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 10-10 16:29 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 10-10 16:28 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $4.81 |
| 10-10 16:26 | Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $2.43 |
| 10-09 21:42 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $16.50 |
| 10-09 21:23 | Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $9.21 |