Turbulent-Men-Methane
0x1fe79e1e6990cc1fa2d015280fe7fed530a07fa7
- Realised P&L
- $-186.20
- Volume
- $65.7k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.375 | $1.0k | −$258.05 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.120 | $169.12 | −$69.34 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.035 | $29.19 | −$54.27 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.170 | $26.12 | +$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$307.99at 0.583Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of September 2026?
- +$33.16at 0.160Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
- +$20.78at 0.419Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
- +$18.56at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
- +$16.07at 0.285Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 05:16 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.4399999977 | $22.98 |
| 10-10 17:43 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.5139962206 | $195.84 |
| 10-10 04:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET | BUY | 0.3131370708 | $6.00 |
| 10-10 04:16 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.1812580347 | $50.83 |
| 10-10 00:09 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.59 |
| 10-09 15:19 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.521881925 | $130.00 |
| 10-09 15:18 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.509366397 | $82.00 |
| 10-08 22:59 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.4495132845 | $134.00 |
| 10-07 22:32 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.0789799238 | $19.91 |
| 10-07 17:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 21:02 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.3113207462 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 04:53 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.32 | $31.82 |
| 10-03 04:52 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.1 | $34.26 |
| 09-30 04:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | BUY | 0.50999996 | $5.99 |
| 09-26 17:05 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.2599999952 | $12.00 |