PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x1e77401bB590f95C1202e4FC65D4028c09C5C65f-1761894302097

0x1e77401bb590f95c1202e4fc65d4028c09c5c65f

Realised P&L
$-2.7k
Volume
$340.1k
Markets traded
83
Open portfolio
$4.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded83
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration56.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1190.095$2.5k−$627.08
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1430.055$1.9k−$3.1k
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.4700.235$23.50−$23.50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes0.5890.000$0.00−$294.60
Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes0.8800.000$0.00−$440.25
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$98.00
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yes0.8700.000$0.00−$696.00
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-08 13:30Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1188343$3.1k
10-08 13:29Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?SELL0.9$3.1k
10-08 13:28Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?BUY0.9099999999$3.2k
10-08 13:27Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?SELL0.1025019586$3.2k
05-12 16:06Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.15$443.83
05-10 17:17Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1495353929$418.70
05-10 11:06Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1683365785$472.90
05-10 08:27Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.15$1.8k
05-10 08:21Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.14$1.6k
05-10 08:21Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1364440287$171.37
05-10 01:40Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1289184086$599.47
05-09 18:43Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.17$2.1k
05-09 18:26Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?BUY0.17$2.1k
05-09 18:21Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?SELL0.999$399.60
04-30 15:01US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY0.002$88.00