0x1e77401bB590f95C1202e4FC65D4028c09C5C65f-1761894302097
0x1e77401bb590f95c1202e4fc65d4028c09c5c65f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $340.1k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.095 | $2.5k | −$627.08 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.055 | $1.9k | −$3.1k |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.470 | 0.235 | $23.50 | −$23.50 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.589 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$294.60 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$440.25 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.00 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$696.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.400US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$956.57at 0.655Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$706.16at 0.938Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$679.14at 0.901Maduro out in 2025?
- +$489.89at 0.799Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:30 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1188343 | $3.1k |
| 10-08 13:29 | Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $3.1k |
| 10-08 13:28 | Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $3.2k |
| 10-08 13:27 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1025019586 | $3.2k |
| 05-12 16:06 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $443.83 |
| 05-10 17:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1495353929 | $418.70 |
| 05-10 11:06 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1683365785 | $472.90 |
| 05-10 08:27 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.8k |
| 05-10 08:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.6k |
| 05-10 08:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1364440287 | $171.37 |
| 05-10 01:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1289184086 | $599.47 |
| 05-09 18:43 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.1k |
| 05-09 18:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.1k |
| 05-09 18:21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $399.60 |
| 04-30 15:01 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $88.00 |