Frightening-Bulldozer-Stylus
0x19bb5dd46bd4f7c96b073a7cbacbe3108bb8f0f5
- Realised P&L
- $-155.38
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $723.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.862 | 0.978 | $236.23 | +$27.87 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.930 | $151.18 | +$6.50 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.925 | $92.51 | +$7.50 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.463 | 0.335 | $56.42 | −$21.58 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.545 | 0.515 | $47.25 | −$2.75 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.875 | $40.91 | +$4.91 |
| Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.890 | $38.14 | +$8.14 |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.545 | $27.25 | −$4.75 |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 15? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.400 | $20.00 | −$14.50 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.972 | $11.93 | +$1.98 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.175 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.29at 0.288Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$48.96at 0.804NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
- +$15.89at 0.777Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
- +$13.10at 0.862US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
- +$5.96at 0.630Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 17:14 | Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999977 | $30.00 |
| 10-23 08:48 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $199.45 |
| 10-18 09:54 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099992538 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 06:48 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999959 | $36.00 |
| 09-15 05:32 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8899999984 | $45.05 |
| 09-10 07:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5449861249 | $50.00 |
| 09-05 00:14 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.4631290628 | $78.00 |
| 09-05 00:04 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $79.31 |
| 09-04 04:19 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8899999919 | $99.63 |
| 08-21 11:39 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.943 | $7.07 |
| 07-19 21:06 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7774999942 | $4.00 |
| 07-18 19:59 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999981 | $90.00 |
| 07-15 20:04 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4274999873 | $15.00 |
| 07-15 20:04 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.2549999891 | $15.00 |
| 07-15 04:48 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3174999883 | $10.00 |