Notlarsa
0x17924d7fe35ab9707ccd826d0e27b25c9ca61ba6
- Realised P&L
- $-0.88
- Volume
- $13.9k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $57.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.55at 0.201Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
- +$13.92at 0.418Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
- +$11.53at 0.308Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
- +$11.16at 0.330Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
- +$8.35at 0.264Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 19:52 | Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 19:51 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 19:50 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 19:48 | Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.2569169889 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 19:45 | Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999966 | $4.00 |
| 10-13 19:45 | Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 19:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 19:42 | Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 19:42 | Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 19:42 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 3+ times during his Midterm Rally in Alaska? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 19:37 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.483 | $40.79 |
| 09-09 20:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 20:14 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.597 | $5.97 |
| 07-15 16:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |