SrFrancisco
0x174e71b46911a87f25ba389de33b38c70f392a52
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $80.5k
- Markets traded
- 238
- Open portfolio
- $835.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded238
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$601.47at 0.625Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$489.60at 0.590Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$425.54at 0.608Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$339.49at 0.389US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$138.85at 0.398Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 15:36 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 09-17 12:24 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $6.96 |
| 09-17 11:10 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.927 | $0.93 |
| 09-17 11:08 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.927 | $0.93 |
| 09-17 10:32 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.924 | $0.92 |
| 09-17 07:52 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999976 | $8.00 |
| 09-17 04:34 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 03:27 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5899999887 | $12.56 |
| 09-17 03:24 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5999999593 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 03:07 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.599999933 | $1.79 |
| 09-17 03:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5999999593 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 03:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5999999593 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 02:53 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5999999593 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 02:36 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5999999593 | $2.95 |
| 09-17 01:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.48 |