DerekWeber2446
0x16a0ed77e2c5d7e6913767f40fa32df4229772f1
- Realised P&L
- $-843.08
- Volume
- $257.2k
- Markets traded
- 246
- Open portfolio
- $145.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded246
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.175 | $123.90 | −$399.95 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.452 | $8.58 | −$9.66 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.050 | $8.52 | −$151.04 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.080 | $2.32 | −$8.12 |
| Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.140 | $0.98 | −$1.47 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.939 | $0.94 | +$0.65 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.021 | $0.14 | −$0.70 |
| Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$0.31 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.120Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?
- +$526.38at 0.220Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$523.27at 0.293Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?
- +$504.84at 0.180Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
- +$364.11at 0.470Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 03:40 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $48.16 |
| 04-21 03:38 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $37.80 |
| 04-13 16:16 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $9.28 |
| 04-13 14:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $270.97 |
| 04-12 20:41 | Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $534.76 |
| 04-12 20:33 | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | SELL | 0.331 | $275.39 |
| 04-12 15:45 | Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.29 | $87.87 |
| 04-12 15:44 | Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.29 | $265.64 |
| 04-12 15:17 | Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04? | SELL | 0.76 | $40.28 |
| 04-12 14:02 | Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $102.08 |
| 04-12 13:51 | Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $709.28 |
| 04-12 13:25 | Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.29 | $353.51 |
| 04-12 00:28 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $799.20 |
| 04-11 22:59 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $809.19 |
| 04-11 18:41 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | SELL | 0.73 | $63.51 |