PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

kilima

0x1574d715583f97ee03175f4f132d331720967b2a

Realised P&L
$-286.73
Volume
$17.0k
Markets traded
316
Open portfolio
$204.76

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded316
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? · No0.6200.825$65.92+$16.38
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.8600.920$21.41+$1.41
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.0140.009$15.04$9.27
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026? · No0.6300.905$14.37+$4.37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.7600.978$12.86+$2.86
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.7300.765$10.48+$0.48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1600.165$10.31+$0.31
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · No0.8000.815$10.19+$0.19
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes0.8200.989$9.88+$1.69
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2600.245$9.42$0.58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7600.695$9.14$0.86
AI bubble burst in 2026? · No0.8300.903$9.03+$0.73
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No0.9580.978$4.89+$0.10
Rippling IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1860.045$1.82$5.68
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-04 01:44Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)BUY0.8489999963$5.00
09-04 01:41Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.7599999878$10.00
09-03 02:07Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?BUY0.8099999854$10.00
09-01 02:08SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.629999988$10.00
09-01 02:07Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?BUY0.3921568627$10.00
09-01 02:04Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.2599999839$10.00
09-01 02:03Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.16$10.00
08-28 02:23Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.7599999483$10.00
08-28 02:22Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.699999993$10.00
08-28 02:21Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.6899999393$10.00
08-28 02:21Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.699999993$10.00
08-27 03:40Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?BUY0.8$10.00
08-27 03:40Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.7299999876$10.00
08-27 03:40Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.8599999991$20.00
08-27 03:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.6799999946$10.00