Burge
0x150657df3cc85b57834e2fb697dd63c095ceca77
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $165.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $19.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.003 | $9.44 | −$113.56 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.007 | $7.50 | −$172.50 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.002 | $1.80 | −$94.20 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.003 | $0.34 | −$13.17 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$791.58 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.42 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.341US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$2.7kat 0.253Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-01-20?
- +$-0.02at 0.840100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
- +$-14.62at 0.070Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
- +$-49.21at 0.936Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 22:16 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.2 | $879.12 |
| 04-25 23:53 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.51 | $975.00 |
| 04-23 01:38 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $126.00 |
| 04-23 01:36 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $12.67 |
| 04-23 01:34 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0409999992 | $47.00 |
| 04-23 01:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.12 | $134.22 |
| 04-22 18:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0479130363 | $85.00 |
| 04-22 14:50 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.034 | $2.42 |
| 04-22 14:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0513161885 | $400.00 |
| 04-22 14:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0090491237 | $65.00 |
| 04-07 23:35 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.017 | $8.57 |
| 04-07 23:32 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.981 | $3.0k |
| 04-07 23:20 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.982 | $491.00 |
| 04-07 23:11 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.9143108046 | $1.1k |
| 04-07 22:31 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.3447598469 | $810.00 |