0x13A58f6D526633D87eAAF1279Ea31b9357566B30-1772518661220
0x13a58f6d526633d87eaaf1279ea31b9357566b30
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $45.4k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $27.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.958 | $21.8k | +$1.1k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.832 | 0.961 | $2.9k | +$386.19 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.929 | 0.960 | $723.21 | +$23.21 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.568 | 0.960 | $540.46 | +$220.46 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.914 | 0.983 | $537.49 | +$37.49 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.895 | $530.59 | +$26.59 |
| Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.980 | $74.53 | +$4.53 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.255 | $34.43 | −$15.53 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.935 | $30.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.901 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.814 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$294.95at 0.718Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$94.66at 0.898Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$56.10at 0.946Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
- +$51.00at 0.286Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$25.32at 0.952Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 11:00 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.9339999998 | $30.00 |
| 09-03 10:58 | Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $70.00 |
| 09-03 10:57 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $49.96 |
| 07-20 03:30 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.00 |
| 07-20 03:29 | Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.9689999993 | $20.00 |
| 07-20 03:29 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.9699999995 | $20.00 |
| 07-20 03:29 | Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.9669999998 | $20.00 |
| 07-18 18:15 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.42 | $120.00 |
| 07-18 18:13 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5557319853 | $200.00 |
| 07-16 08:57 | Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9009999998 | $300.00 |
| 07-16 08:56 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5899999995 | $120.00 |
| 07-16 08:54 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 07:10 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.8499999999 | $500.00 |
| 05-25 16:48 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.2799999916 | $20.00 |
| 05-25 16:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | BUY | 0.9699999998 | $100.00 |