bearbees2
0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
- Realised P&L
- $35.2k
- Volume
- $3.57M
- Markets traded
- 280
- Open portfolio
- $124.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded280
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.7kat 0.941Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$5.5kat 0.601Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
- +$3.3kat 0.170Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$3.0kat 0.714Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$2.9kat 0.861Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 23:20 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $7.68 |
| 10-31 23:14 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9336918168 | $5.6k |
| 10-31 22:49 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $996.01 |
| 10-30 17:29 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9738300956 | $1.3k |
| 10-30 17:27 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9718982144 | $3.3k |
| 10-30 17:20 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $119.08 |
| 10-30 17:01 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.1k |
| 10-30 16:57 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $2.4k |
| 10-30 16:10 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9695104831 | $797.66 |
| 10-28 21:49 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9885454545 | $76.12 |
| 10-28 21:41 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9284270816 | $3.6k |
| 10-28 20:04 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.985893617 | $46.34 |
| 10-28 14:33 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9881729225 | $45.54 |
| 10-28 14:33 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.987 | $19.74 |
| 10-28 14:32 | Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.9803333333 | $14.70 |