NathanielMeyer2565
0x1294da2eeb65416e1bf007c6b428ef13fdf29151
- Realised P&L
- $-52.89
- Volume
- $362.5k
- Markets traded
- 352
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded352
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.893 | $1.0k | +$376.96 |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.162 | $88.50 | −$98.91 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.085 | $67.83 | −$219.45 |
| Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.535 | $10.70 | −$7.50 |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.968 | $9.66 | +$6.66 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.085 | $6.46 | −$21.66 |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$1.76 |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.017 | $0.03 | −$0.37 |
| Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.002 | $0.00 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$390.32at 0.140Will MrBeast say "Tesla" or "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video?
- +$370.98at 0.116Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?
- +$305.20at 0.470Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
- +$224.02at 0.540Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$198.30at 0.330Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:06 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $11.55 |
| 04-24 03:58 | Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $633.92 |
| 04-11 06:08 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.466 | $260.96 |
| 04-09 09:26 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04? | SELL | 0.44 | $341.88 |
| 04-08 22:02 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $435.50 |
| 04-08 21:47 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.519 | $290.64 |
| 04-08 18:52 | Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04? | BUY | 0.45 | $349.65 |
| 02-28 18:29 | Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers | BUY | 0.789 | $418.96 |
| 02-28 02:49 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | SELL | 0.41 | $29.93 |
| 02-27 18:34 | Dundee United FC vs. St Mirren FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.88 | $300.96 |
| 02-27 07:46 | Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | SELL | 0.912 | $374.83 |
| 02-25 03:31 | Will Trump say "Panama" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.13 | $63.83 |
| 02-24 21:19 | Will Trump say "Panama" during the State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.61 | $299.51 |
| 02-21 02:19 | Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.53 | $195.04 |
| 02-20 11:55 | Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026? | SELL | 0.043 | $1.50 |