PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

NIKEa

0x1229233bad2fd7462955c6383448904b5432df38

Realised P&L
$10.7k
Volume
$3.35M
Markets traded
316
Open portfolio
$59.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded316
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes0.9380.994$11.2k+$631.51
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.8190.952$8.0k+$1.1k
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · Yes0.8630.934$6.4k+$490.73
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No0.9720.992$2.8k+$56.08
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · No0.3940.320$2.7k$632.63
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No0.9710.974$2.6k+$7.21
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026? · No0.9680.977$2.1k+$17.55
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No0.9830.988$1.7k+$8.59
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? · Yes0.7150.982$1.7k+$455.67
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · No0.8660.957$1.5k+$145.40
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · No0.7300.755$1.5k+$50.87
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No0.9660.989$1.5k+$33.21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.8780.917$1.3k+$57.75
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? · No0.9640.971$1.2k+$9.06
Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026? · No0.9690.978$1.2k+$11.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:21Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?BUY0.995$199.00
08-02 22:20Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?BUY0.995$995.00
08-02 22:20Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?BUY0.976$9.76
08-02 22:19Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?BUY0.9899903$989.99
08-02 22:19Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?BUY0.99$74.73
08-02 22:17Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.013$1.95
08-02 22:17Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.013$39.00
08-02 20:35Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$39.00
08-02 20:35Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$29.25
08-02 11:27Social Security insolvent by December 31, 2027?BUY0.95$47.50
08-02 11:20Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$29.25
08-02 11:20Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$9.75
08-02 11:20Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$19.50
08-02 11:12Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?BUY0.45$2.25
08-02 10:56Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?BUY0.975$29.25