NIKEa
0x1229233bad2fd7462955c6383448904b5432df38
- Realised P&L
- $10.7k
- Volume
- $3.35M
- Markets traded
- 316
- Open portfolio
- $59.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded316
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.239Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.3kat 0.610Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$992.96at 0.759Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$523.01at 0.959Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
- +$486.40at 0.704Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:21 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $199.00 |
| 08-02 22:20 | Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $995.00 |
| 08-02 22:20 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.976 | $9.76 |
| 08-02 22:19 | Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.9899903 | $989.99 |
| 08-02 22:19 | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.99 | $74.73 |
| 08-02 22:17 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $1.95 |
| 08-02 22:17 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.013 | $39.00 |
| 08-02 20:35 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $39.00 |
| 08-02 20:35 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $29.25 |
| 08-02 11:27 | Social Security insolvent by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 08-02 11:20 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $29.25 |
| 08-02 11:20 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $9.75 |
| 08-02 11:20 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $19.50 |
| 08-02 11:12 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 08-02 10:56 | Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $29.25 |