babydogebox
0x118418e8af3a8441ea5e0268ad4ae8b6cb761b67
- Realised P&L
- $468.68
- Volume
- $273.4k
- Markets traded
- 265
- Open portfolio
- $647.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded265
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.500 | $466.50 | −$214.59 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.040 | $52.92 | −$429.08 |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.952 | $50.46 | +$3.82 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.480 | $41.28 | +$0.00 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.091 | $14.56 | −$104.16 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.741 | 0.974 | $9.73 | +$2.33 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.039 | $8.31 | −$17.25 |
| Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.965 | $3.86 | +$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.380Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?
- +$791.56at 0.380Will "Dandelion" - Ella Langley debut week album sales be at least 140k?
- +$659.34at 0.190Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at market close on IPO day?
- +$476.69at 0.270Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?
- +$434.52at 0.320Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 04:57 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $358.34 |
| 04-23 12:49 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.19 | $203.87 |
| 04-21 08:43 | T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner | SELL | 0.022 | $6.29 |
| 04-21 08:43 | T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner | SELL | 0.022 | $12.21 |
| 04-21 03:17 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $69.08 |
| 04-21 02:57 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $66.44 |
| 04-21 02:55 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $59.84 |
| 04-21 02:52 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.22 | $206.80 |
| 04-13 16:17 | Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $587.25 |
| 04-13 11:20 | Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $353.97 |
| 04-13 10:49 | T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner | BUY | 0.899 | $756.06 |
| 04-13 10:42 | Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $640.64 |
| 04-13 09:25 | Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.36 | $289.80 |
| 04-13 04:21 | Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $13.34 |
| 04-13 04:19 | Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $9.89 |