Misread
0x0fdb3cea619357b91e81c6d9f9661865225335fb
- Realised P&L
- $-187.34
- Volume
- $29.1k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $70.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$163.68at 0.127MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$77.01at 0.061Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$26.25at 0.160Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$19.85at 0.502Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4PM ET
- +$18.46at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 17:32 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 17:31 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 17:30 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.0220000001 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 17:30 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 17:25 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.1016824117 | $133.64 |
| 05-15 17:25 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8960279122 | $190.68 |
| 04-05 22:06 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0859999856 | $5.00 |
| 03-20 00:24 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6899999869 | $10.00 |
| 03-20 00:21 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.449999988 | $15.00 |
| 02-27 03:06 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 02-25 04:40 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 02-22 18:23 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 02-21 00:06 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 02-16 20:23 | Will SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2871286736 | $5.00 |
| 02-16 20:22 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0971694548 | $7.00 |