PolyBot

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Traders

Misread

0x0fdb3cea619357b91e81c6d9f9661865225335fb

Realised P&L
$-187.34
Volume
$29.1k
Markets traded
43
Open portfolio
$70.14

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded43
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample20 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1300.038$17.77$42.23
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes0.1900.325$17.11+$7.11
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2000.117$11.65$8.35
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.4110.075$7.30$32.70
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No0.5100.180$7.06$12.94
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.6900.420$6.09$3.91
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.1420.007$3.17$56.83
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET · Down0.1620.000$0.00$7.96
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET · Up0.3300.000$0.00$6.52
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1AM ET · Up0.7300.000$0.00$20.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET · Up0.0540.000$0.00$46.93
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6AM ET · Down0.1300.000$0.00$1.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0970.000$0.00$25.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET · Up0.0300.000$0.00$14.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-10 17:32Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.1199999808$5.00
06-10 17:31Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?BUY0.1799999755$5.00
06-10 17:30Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?BUY0.0220000001$5.00
06-10 17:30Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?BUY0.16$5.00
06-10 17:25Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?SELL0.1016824117$133.64
05-15 17:25MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?SELL0.8960279122$190.68
04-05 22:06Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0859999856$5.00
03-20 00:24Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.6899999869$10.00
03-20 00:21Will Neymar play in the World Cup?BUY0.449999988$15.00
02-27 03:06Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?BUY0.189999988$10.00
02-25 04:40Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.299999982$10.00
02-22 18:23Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?BUY0.3799999833$10.00
02-21 00:06Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?BUY0.16$5.00
02-16 20:23Will SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?BUY0.2871286736$5.00
02-16 20:22MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0971694548$7.00