SonataElPatrona
0x0deab8eb148fbc0a05e8915456068c7cd44df9cd
- Realised P&L
- $-74.21
- Volume
- $23.4k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $131.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.250Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
- +$12.01at 0.743Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
- +$9.90at 0.100Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
- +$7.67at 0.080GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$7.24at 0.580Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 10:16 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.22 |
| 09-11 04:54 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.0156862745 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 04:54 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | SELL | 0.0098807955 | $4.35 |
| 09-10 13:55 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.00 |
| 09-08 05:32 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.02 | $4.00 |
| 09-07 05:09 | Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.028 | $7.00 |
| 09-03 07:15 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 09-03 07:14 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.30 |
| 09-03 07:10 | Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $2.72 |
| 09-02 12:06 | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 12:04 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.58 |
| 09-02 12:03 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999825 | $30.00 |
| 09-02 12:02 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 09-02 12:02 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4499999857 | $11.00 |
| 09-02 12:01 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $4.35 |