ag129
0x0ca6921c8e34b17f2d4de798e0b1ff81a74c2408
- Realised P&L
- $15.16
- Volume
- $8.8k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $354.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.735 | $183.75 | +$33.75 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.410 | 0.275 | $67.07 | −$32.93 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.070 | $35.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.525 | $31.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.275 | $22.44 | +$2.44 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.050 | $14.30 | −$5.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.72at 0.280Will England win on 2026-07-18?
- +$170.26at 0.149Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
- +$59.55at 0.256Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?
- +$59.25at 0.259Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$54.26at 0.457Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 12:05 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2450980392 | $20.00 |
| 09-21 12:03 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $30.00 |
| 09-21 12:02 | Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 08-15 20:59 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.75 | $32.00 |
| 08-15 20:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.25 | $20.00 |
| 08-10 14:20 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4099999976 | $100.00 |
| 08-10 14:19 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $150.00 |
| 07-20 11:49 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0699475712 | $20.00 |
| 07-20 11:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0599999972 | $20.00 |
| 07-19 05:05 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0719999969 | $20.00 |
| 07-16 05:19 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999985 | $95.79 |
| 07-16 05:18 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.2699999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 12:59 | Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3274999972 | $50.00 |
| 07-12 08:44 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4299999981 | $60.00 |
| 07-10 21:28 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3099999968 | $50.00 |