0x0A859BDC65680e911f0dF71D65278ed424EE6962-1785898024295
0x0a859bdc65680e911f0df71d65278ed424ee6962
- Realised P&L
- $46.06
- Volume
- $534.89
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $19.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics vs. Magic · Celtics | 0.690 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$3.10 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.365 | $4.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.031 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.090 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.050 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.315 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.105 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET · Up | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.53at 0.330Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
- +$1.17at 0.932Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?
- +$0.18at 0.695Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
- +$0.11at 0.994Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.944Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 05:06 | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:03 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.0269999993 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:03 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:03 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:02 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0569999989 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 05:01 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 03:31 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.036 | $1.89 |
| 08-19 13:21 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0379999824 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 05:48 | Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors? | SELL | 0.96291225 | $38.52 |
| 08-07 03:18 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 08-07 03:18 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $6.42 |
| 08-07 03:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $18.10 |
| 08-07 02:51 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 08-07 02:18 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.831 | $24.93 |
| 08-05 13:37 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.295 | $9.09 |