MarvelFan94
0x09789b8b51146babd57e3e33b9376f3496f800e6
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $522.4k
- Markets traded
- 482
- Open portfolio
- $12.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded482
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.043Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.090Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.050US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.080Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
- +$742.80at 0.090Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 15:15 | Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $98.90 |
| 08-02 15:15 | Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $80.03 |
| 08-02 12:42 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.934163829 | $148.14 |
| 08-02 10:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.5720983688 | $23.15 |
| 08-02 08:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 08-02 08:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.03 | $150.00 |
| 08-02 06:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $356.00 |
| 08-02 06:16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $147.48 |
| 08-02 05:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.6k |
| 08-02 05:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.8k |
| 08-02 05:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5997101098 | $543.67 |
| 08-02 03:55 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $242.25 |
| 07-31 08:52 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 08:18 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.91 | $818.98 |
| 07-31 07:28 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $528.00 |