MarvelFan94
0x09789b8b51146babd57e3e33b9376f3496f800e6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $807.5k
- Markets traded
- 529
- Open portfolio
- $7.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded529
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.043Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.080Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.050US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.080Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
- +$741.99at 0.091Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 16:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.378 | $75.60 |
| 10-15 16:31 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $98.84 |
| 10-05 13:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7 | $140.00 |
| 10-05 13:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 10-02 19:07 | Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.9534638959 | $86.49 |
| 10-02 19:07 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.873 | $218.25 |
| 10-02 19:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $839.99 |
| 09-30 15:35 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $240.00 |
| 09-30 15:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 09-29 18:52 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 09-29 15:17 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 09-29 14:34 | Trump renames AI by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 09-29 12:49 | Trump renames AI by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $55.00 |
| 09-29 12:12 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $6.29 |
| 09-29 06:20 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.47 | $4.70 |